I Got Polled

For only the second time ever, I got polled last week. By tns/MRBI. The last time I was polled was in 2002, just before the general election, also by tns/MRBI.

It’s weird getting opinion polled. You always read these things in the newspapers, and actually being a part of the “a random sample of 1,003 adults across the country” is a reminder that all the percentages actually come from people like me (well, people anyway) across the country being actually asked. Which is easy to forget sometimes.

Except this time, I didn’t see the results being published in the Irish Times (which usually carries the tns/MRBI polls). So I guess it must have been some political party’s internal poll – which probably means Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. I’m guessing Fianna Fáil, because I did see something in one of the papers about an internal FF poll which showed the party would come in third place in a general election.

That tallies with the last Irish Times – tns/MRBI and Sunday Business Post – Red C polls, putting Labour in the low- to mid-twenties. And it does seem pretty clear that if there was an election soon, Fianna Fáil would get cheesed (like getting creamed, but it goes on for longer: thank you Terry Pratchett!). Royally cheesed.

But that makes me ask: would Fine Gael and Labour really do much better in Government? Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

I’m not sure they could. I mean let’s face it, a lot of our problems come from the fact that we’re in a global downturn. There’s less tax coming in. Banks everywhere are struggling. Fianna Fáil can’t do much about the global economy, and neither could Labour or Fine Gael. A new Rainbow government would still be faced with a huge deficit and 2002-level tax receipts, and would still be faced with the task of cutting €5 billion or so in Government spending, or making it up through tax increases. Whatever way you cut that level of money from the public purse, you are going to upset a lot of people. A lot.

I think that if there was an election tomorrow, Fine Gael and Labour would win in a landslide, I think the Greens would go from 6 to probably nine or ten, and Sinn Féin would pick up a couple too. Fianna Fáil would lose big. And then, I think that once they had decided on which spending cuts and tax increases to make, their poll numbers would drop like a stone. Curiously I think that would benefit the Greens, who are actually doing decent work in the two ministries they have – Communications, Energy, and Natural Resources and Environment, Heritage, and Local Government – particularly Eamon Ryan in DCENR, who is actually, despite the recession, well ahead of schedule to complete everything in the Programme for Government for the DCENR. And the Greens’ polling numbers are, despite the fact that they are part of this Government, 150% at least of their vote from the last general election. I think they are pulling off a great trick – taking credit for what they are doing themselves, whilst avoiding the blame for Fianna Fáil’s mistakes. It remains to be seen whether they can keep that up.

But my point is, if there is an election soon, voters will switch in droves from Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael and Labour. And if Fine Gael and Labour can’t pull off a miracle, their poll numbers will start to tank as well, very quickly…but where do those voters go? They won’t go back to Fianna Fáil…so they are left with really only two options: Sinn Féin and the Greens. And I don’t think a lot of them would go to Sinn Féin.

Anyway, this was meant to be a 2 line post, and I got a bit carried away, so I’ll leave it there for now. But I would be very interested to read any comments that any of you might have on that analysis.